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eBooks Will Flop, But Print-On-Demand And Digital Textbooks Will Thrive, Predicts Forrester Research

Cambridge, Mass., December 22, 2000 . . . Challenging book publishers' expectations, a new Report from Forrester Research forecasts slow growth for both eBooks and eBook reader devices. However, strong projected sales of custom-printed trade books and digitized textbooks will force publishers to dramatically restructure their processes and technologies.

Digital delivery of custom-printed books, textbooks, and eBooks will account for revenues of $7.8 billion -- 17.5% of publishing industry revenues -- in five years. Of this amount, only $251 million will come from eBooks for eBook devices.

"Publishers are expecting trade eBook sales that won't materialize -- the drawbacks of reading onscreen will discourage all but the most motivated readers," said Daniel P. O'Brien, senior analyst at Forrester. "But publishers can't go back to business as usual -- the Web's distribution advantages demand that they shift to far more flexible digital production."

Taken together, custom printing, digital textbooks, and eBooks will pressure publishers to offer greater consumer choice, variable presentation and delivery, and new ways to purchase -- none of which authors can do themselves. The result is a new publishing model that Forrester calls multichannel publishing. Successful publishers will manage all of their content from a single, comprehensive storehouse -- a repository containing modular book content and structure.

Forrester predicts that multichannel publishers will develop current business practices to match the Internet's speed and convenience. Negotiations between publishers' editors and authors' agents must begin to incorporate online research, communities of interest, Net promotional plans, and product variants. Multichannel publishing requires acquisitions driven by identification of demand, maximum flexibility in product packaging, and improved time-to-market.

To realize the benefits of digital books, multichannel publishers will need new technologies that support multichannel delivery. Successful companies will adopt XML to separate content from layout and enable delivery on any platform or device. Publishers will also convert content into both PDF and OpeneBook (OeB) files, which are easier than XML to repurpose and share with partners.

Book marketing has long been a matter of co-op bookseller ads, author appearances, and word of mouth -- all geared toward driving store traffic. In the case of digital books, however, every promotional message is also an opportunity to buy on the spot, and the product itself doesn't exist until it's delivered to the buyer. Flexible pricing and value-added components further reinforce successful multichannel publishing.

For the Report "Books Unbound," Forrester interviewed 51 trade, educational, and professional publishers and surveyed 71 authors via email. Each publish an average of 430 new books per year and typically have an active backlist of 1,486 titles.

Forrester Research is a leading independent Internet research firm, analyzing technology change and its impact on business, consumers, and society. Forrester's "Whole View" of the Internet economy enables clients to weave together Internet commerce initiatives with eBusiness technology to satisfy customers' changing needs. Clients receive continuous research and analysis through Forrester eResearch™ Reports, an array of advisory services, assessment tools, and topical events. Established in 1983, Forrester is headquartered in Cambridge, Mass. Forrester's European Research Center is located in Amsterdam, Netherlands, and its UK Research Centre is located in London. Additional information about Forrester Research can be found at www.forrester.com.

Contact:

Mariko Zapf
Manager, Public Relations
Forrester Research, Inc.
+1 617/613-6255
press@forrester.com