Report

September 2002

3G's Belated Break-Even

Michelle de Lussanet 		Only 10% of European mobile users will use UMTS in 2007, delaying industrywide payback until 2014. 2.5G will remain the center of innovation for at least five more years.

INTERVIEWS
  • 89% of 3G license holders express outright optimism for 3G.
  • 88% plan to launch a commercial service before 2004.
  • Incumbents expect 50% adoption of UMTS in five years.
ANALYSIS
  • 3G subscriber numbers in Europe will total only one-fifth of what operators expect in 2007.
  • The average mobile operator will not break even from 3G investments before 2014.
  • GPRS spearheads mobile's innovation for another five years.
WHAT IT MEANS
  • Equipment vendors take over network operations.
 
Figures & Data
  • Figure 1.  Optimism Entrenches Operators' UMTS Expectations
  • Figure 2.  Forecast: European 3G Subscribers, 2002 To 2007
  • Figure 3.  Model: European UMTS Operator Break-Even By Country
   
RELATED MATERIAL 
  • Online Resources
  • Interview Methodology
  • Companies Interviewed For This Report
  • Related Research
 
GRAPEVINE
  • Mediating for the mobile industry is preparation for getting world peace.
  • UMTS: "top secret."
  • The trillion-euro toddler.

 

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Analyst: Michelle de Lussanet
Special Feature: Models
Document Type: Report
Archived Teleconference:
European Mobile Services Forecast 2008 To 2013
Original air date: Monday, February 25, 2008

Special Features

1 Forecast

Research on future technology trends or innovation

1 Model

Manipulable market sizing or cost spreadsheets

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