Report

August 2003

From Discs To Downloads


Josh Bernoff
Hard media is in jeopardy: By 2008, revenues from CDs will be off 19%, while DVDs and tapes will drop 8%. Piracy and its cure -- streaming and paid downloads -- will drive people to connect to entertainment, not own it.
by Josh Bernoff with Chris Charron, Ayanna Lonian, Charles Strohm, Gregory Flemming, Ph.D.

MARKET OVERVIEW
  • 49% of 12- to 22-year-olds downloaded music last month.
  • Half of downloaders say they now buy fewer CDs.
  • One in five young file sharers has downloaded a movie.
ANALYSIS
  • File sharing has lopped $700 million off of music sales.
  • Proliferating on-demand media services will overtake piracy.
  • In five years, 33% of music sales will come from downloads.
  • CD sales will be down 30% from their 1999 peak.
  • Various forms of video on-demand will gross $4.2 billion.
WHAT IT MEANS
  • Portals and cable win the on-demand media sweepstakes.
ACTION
  • TV networks: Get those DVDs of popular series out quickly.
 
Figures & Data
  • Figure 1.  Downloading Is Far More Prevalent Among Young People
  • Figure 2.  Downloading And Buying Behavior By Segment
  • Figure 3.  Music Downloading And Video Sharing On The Rise
  • Figure 4.  Do The Math: Almost $700 Million Lost To Downloading
  • Figure 5.  On-Demand Music And Movie Services
  • Figure 6.  Forecast: US Music Revenues, 2002 To 2008
  • Figure 7.  Forecast: US Video Revenues, 2002 To 2008
   
RELATED MATERIAL 
  • Online Resource
  • Methodology
  • Individuals Interviewed For This Report
  • Companies Interviewed For This Report
  • Related Research
 
GRAPEVINE
  • Yes, but what do young consumers really think?
  • Would you rather be loved or feared?
  • We’re shocked, shocked, to find out that copyrighted software is being shared.

 

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Analyst: Josh Bernoff
Special Feature: Forecasts
Document Type: Report
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