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Client systems management tools are designed to help end user organizations reduce desktop and mobile support costs while increasing end user service levels and improving productivity. However, too few organizations use client management tools, and vendor offerings vary depending on their historical product focus. Some vendors are more focused on security management, while others are working on improved change and configuration management or IT life cycle management. But end user demand for integrated management tools is driving market consolidation and forcing once-disparate management point solutions into more comprehensive management suites.
The release of the Linux 2.6 kernel and its distribution by both Red Hat and Novell (SUSE) mark a major step forward, giving Linux the ability to scale into territory traditionally reserved for midrange Unix and Windows systems. This year, AMD and Intel will produce 4- and 8-socket x86 systems with as many as 16 cores. Forrester expects Linux benchmarks to establish scalability parity with Unix for 8- to 16-way SMP boxes, which puts Linux in the running for midtier database and large application server deployment.
While metadata is not new, it's a critical element of automated information life-cycle management systems. Many products for archiving and content management create and use their own metadata today -- but these databases must become part of a federated system. If they do not, firms will be faced with a fragmented portfolio of information life-cycle management tools that have no common policies, management, or audit trail.
During the past year, Linux and open source applications drove the sales of x64 servers based on Advanced Micro Devices' Opteron micro-architecture and, more recently, on Intel "Nocona" processors with EM64T. Now, Microsoft has released its new 64-bit server version of Windows to take advantage of the larger volume server market optimized for both Opteron and EM64T processor technologies. Here's how to pick the right server: 1) identify suitable 64-bit applications targets; 2) measure 64-bit performance with a variety of benchmarks; 3) understand the price/performance payoff; and finally, 4) ensure that it supports a wide variety of OSes.
At the end of 2004, there were about 161 million PCs in use in the 20 Asia-Pacific countries we analyzed. By the end of the decade, the number of PCs in use will more than triple to almost 559 million PCs -- an annual growth rate of 20%. Asia-Pacific PC adoption is characterized by a mix of mature markets like Australia and Singapore, growth markets like Japan and Malaysia, and emerging PC markets like China and India. Together, China and India will add 236 million new PCs by the end of the decade.
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Dear Friends,
Thank you for subscribing to the Computing Systems First Look! Like many of you, I used to have trouble explaining what I do to my parents; when asked, my mom would usually tell her friends that her daughter "works with computers." But I've finally come up with a catchy, non-geeky formulation that works: If a technology is complex, expensive, and difficult to implement, it's our problem. Thus, you can count on this email for your quarterly infrastructure fix. It's all here: mainframes, data centers, business continuity, systems management, IT and physical security, storage, servers, processor architectures, OSes, and client hardware.
I'd also like to introduce the two newest members of the Computing Systems family.
Michael Gavin will handle application security, vulnerability management, incident response, and forensics.
Natalie Lambert will tackle client security, including 2005's hottest security topic, antispyware tools. You'll see some of their research showcased here, and expect more from them in the future.
Sincerely,
Laura Koetzle
Vice President, Research Director
laurakoetzle@forrester.com
The Big Idea:
How To Predict Which IT Innovations Will Succeed
Both technology vendors and users constantly face the dilemma of adopting an innovation without knowing its future. Studies on the economics of technological diffusion show that innovation adoption describes an S-shaped curve with two major inflection points: 1) the beginning of widespread market adoption, where sales take off, and 2) the beginning of market saturation, when market growth slows markedly. All successful IT innovations must satisfy four conditions: 1) technological advantage; 2) economical advantage; 3) compatibility with vested interests; and 4) ability to encourage development of complementary elements. The upshot? The conventional wisdom about why and how innovations succeed is wrong. However, you can predict sales takeoff points by analyzing the evolution of the supply.
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Here's how the four cascading criteria for IT innovation adoption play out:
1. Provide a technological advantage over existing solutions. The innovation must show a significant -- and objectively measurable -- improvement over existing solutions. The new technology must run faster, scale better, or fill an unmet need.
2. Translate into a clear economical advantage. If the new product equipped with the innovative solution is better or faster, it must be cheaper to acquire or cheaper to operate.
3. Demonstrate compatibility with vested interests. Innovation in IT tends to replace existing solutions for which complements are already in place. These legacy complements retard innovation adoption. For example, Internet usage came late to France because of France's Minitel network.
4. Encourage rapid development of complementary technologies. The new innovation will also require the development of complements -- airplanes need runways and airports to compete with trains and their networks of track and stations.
And finally: Conventional wisdom breaks down when correlating competition and cost decrease. At first glance, the commercial aviation example seems to support conventional wisdom: Sales takeoff coincides with an increase in the number of airplane manufacturers and decline in cost per seat per mile to less than that of the Pullman train. However, conventional wisdom and reality diverge after sales takeoff; the number of aircraft manufacturers and the cost per seat per mile fell in tandem for decades.
Further Recent Research In Brief:
To Secure Web Applications, Start With The OWASP Top Ten
Putting steel bars on your windows won't make you any safer if you leave your doors unlocked. Instead of working to outsmart perimeter defenses like firewalls, attackers will simply use unsecured Web applications to sabotage your business. How do you keep customer data in and hackers out? Use OWASP's list of the top 10 Web application security vulnerabilities to find and fix your weaknesses and install a few deadbolts.
Trend Micro Enhances Antispyware Offering
Trend Micro's acquisition of InterMute gives Trend entrée to the millions of InterMute's SpySubtract users. This instantly establishes Trend's presence in the North American antispyware market and gives it an important beachhead in the heated battle for desktop security leadership. This year, a full 65% of companies will invest in antispyware tools. Moreover, organizations express strong preference for best-of-breed solutions over integrated client security suites. Trend will rebrand SpySubtract as its own best-of-breed tool for both consumers and businesses and start getting its foot in the door of coveted Symantec and McAfee enterprise shops prior to the inevitable client security vendor rationalization that customers will begin undertake in 12 to 18 months.
Microsoft And Sun Reach The First Milestone
Thirteen months after settling differences and agreeing to work together, Microsoft and Sun announced their first real steps together. They've cooperated on specs to enable interoperability for Web single sign-on and systems management and will implement those in future products. And Sun has added a Microsoft desktop protocol to its Sun Ray products that allows them to access Windows applications. Sun and Microsoft are making their partnership work because they share similar visions of the technology future -- and they face common challenges. The result? Lower-cost interoperability between Sun's Java environment and Microsoft's Windows .NET environment.
Upcoming Research:
The Forrester Wave™: Client Security Suites, Q2 2005 -- Natalie Lambert and David Friedlander
2005 Corporate PC Market Update -- Simon Yates
The Forrester Wave™: Business Continuity Service Providers, Q3 2005 -- Colin Rankine
Events Note:
We enjoyed meeting everyone who attended Forrester's GigaWorld IT Forums in Dallas and Prague, and we hope to see you all again at our Executive Strategy Forum in Boston, November 15-16.
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