Happiness is . . . a warm puppy, according to the late Charles Schultz. While my dog Snoopy proves every day that Schultz was onto something, happiness at this time of year means many other things. For online retailers, happiness this holiday season is sales on track to reach Forrester's projected 20% increase over last year and another successful eCommerce year under their belts. This season has indeed been a happy one for online retailers; evidence of this can be found in a few recent observations:

• The contents of my neighbors' trash. As I drove home through my Anytown, USA suburb one trash night, the Amazon.com boxes lying on the curbs stood out to me as though in a different color. (I finally understand a good friend and former Forrester analyst, who has a freakish ability to spot four-leaf clovers in a patch of three- and five-leaf rejects.) Suddenly, the familiar Amazon-striped boxes appeared at nearly every other house, as did the blue-lettered Lands' End boxes and other packages from online and catalog retailers. It's clear that not only did online retailers get their share this holiday season as in the past, but also that this time mainstream shoppers -- my neighbors and yours -- let their fingers do the shopping, too.

• A man vomiting into a potted tree at the mall. Two weekends ago, a friend and I cruised a mobbed mall -- my first and last trip of the season. Summing up the hysteria of the overwhelming, frenetic crowd, a man stood doubled over a fake mall tree, losing his food court lunch in the tree's grate. I almost rushed up to him to start listing off the online retail sites that will still deliver on time for Christmas, but instinct told me it was an inappropriate moment for advice. Increased shipping reliability, thanks to tighter partnerships and preparation with the USPS, UPS, and FedEx, have all but erased the uncertainty of holidays past, increasing sales for once-unknown retailers like eBags by 55% during the week of December 13. Overall, 90% of online retailers have reported sales increases during the past year, according to the Shop.org/BizRate.com Online Holiday Mood Study.

• Coworkers who shield their computer screens. As an online retail analyst, it's difficult to tell when I'm working and when I'm shopping. I saw many employees "working" at online retail sites in our office and across the country on the Monday after Thanksgiving, but reports also indicate that many more people used the Web on the holiday itself and the subsequent weekend to browse, buy, and escape relatives. To me, this holiday traffic represents yet another signal that consumers integrate the Web into their everyday lives more than ever. It also means that retailers have to rethink traffic patterns and server load balancing to avoid getting caught off guard: According to Keynote Systems, only 80% of online consumers could complete a transaction during peak shopping hours on Black Friday (9 a.m. to 3 p.m. Eastern time).

• A search for a toy with less wiring than my Blackberry. I made one demand for my little one's first holiday: no more talking, dancing, or beeping toys, just something made from wood that sparks imagination (sorry Elmo). I shouldn't have been so quick to spurn technology. All large and small retailers were out of the wooden toy activity cart that my mother had decided to buy for him. The only store that had it in stock? Back To Basics Toys, which we found on Shopzilla.com. As expected, stores went into the holidays with lean inventories for fear of a soft season, and my mother and many others found hard-to-find products online -- and they did it in 0.011 seconds, according to the search meter on Shopzilla. That guy throwing up in the mall really needs to check out online shopping!

Research Referenced In This Issue Amazon Edges Out eBay In Shopping Experience Satisfaction (35541) Benchmark 2004 Data Overview (34278)    Online Holiday Sales 2004: Proceed With Caution (35550) Portals Will Introduce Comparison-Shopping To The Masses (33621) Target, Toys"R"Us, And Wal-Mart Share Toy Buyers (33329) US eCommerce Overview: 2004 To 2010 (34576)

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