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With each successive LinuxWorld, Linux seems to feel more mainstream, and this year the trend continued. The show was more about solutions than Linux. The pavilions of major vendors like IBM and HP were almost indistinguishable from the exhibits they show at any other general computer show. They featured high- and low-end hardware, development tools, and selected enterprise applications, with some high-performance computing flavor thrown in. And, by the way, it all runs on Linux.
When Microsoft announced that it would build native 64-bit versions of Windows to support AMD's x86, 64-bit Opteron, and Athlon 64 processors, it put AMD back in the game. Intel responded with plans to extend its own 32-bit x86 Xeon and Pentium processors to 64-bit with Extended Memory 64 Technology (EM64T). Despite an early technology lead, AMD must now try to stay ahead of volume leader Intel and drive its 64-bit processors deeper into the heart of the 64-bit x86 mainstream market.
In January 2005, Forrester surveyed 200 technology decision-makers at North American companies about their approach to IT security. We learned that 63% of firms currently have personal firewalls deployed somewhere in their organization. However, many PCs remain unprotected from network worms, Trojans, and other security threats; only 23% of companies have personal firewalls deployed on all client machines.
Here are the top five issues that enterprise IT infrastructure managers at $1 billion-plus companies struggle with today: 1) consistent end-to-end application and service performance guarantees; 2) unplanned infrastructure changes resulting in incidents and downtime; 3) unanticipated infrastructure consequences of consolidation and new application projects; 4) misconfiguration of network objects; and 5) wide-area network performance.
Application performance is one of the major sources of downtime and brownouts. Today's applications are an increasingly complex aggregate of many moving parts, and problems lurk not only in the code, but also in architecture, platform configuration, links with dependent internal or external systems, and infrastructure capacity. Because hardware is cheap, it is often the remedy of choice. More often than not, it will have the effect of aspirin on a broken leg: temporary relief, at best.
In the fall of 2004, Forrester surveyed 1,383 technology decision-makers at North American and European enterprises about their current mobile PC adoption, as well as future mobile PC adoption plans. Business services and manufacturing firms are leading the way in the adoption of laptops and tablets, while the public sector and finance and insurance sector lag behind. In addition, those firms with more than 51% of their users currently using a mobile PC have the lowest planned adoption of mobile PCs for current desktop users in 2005.
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Dear subscriber,
Many of you have asked for a more specific focus on Computing Systems coverage, so I'm pleased to introduce a quarterly First Look dedicated to this team's work. We have both North American and European analysts active in creating Computing Systems research, as well as close partnerships with analysts in the Industry Economics & Data, Security, Telecom & Networks, and other teams.
You need to know how mergers, technical achievements, and new infrastructure solutions can help you better harness the potential of your existing IT assets. If you haven't already signed up for the Computing Systems First Look on Forrester.com, I urge you to subscribe and keep up with these developments. Laura Koetzle, the research director for the team, will edit this newsletter. Laura is a software architect and developer; prior to joining Forrester four years ago, she spent five years as a technology lead at a systems integrator in New York and at a diversified publishing company in San Francisco.
If you would like to continue receiving this newsletter on a quarterly basis,
you must either reply to this email using "Subscribe" as your subject line or visit our Email Subscriptions page. As always, First Look is free of charge, and you can opt not to receive it at any time.
Merv Adrian
Senior Vice President
mervadrian@forrester.com
Report On Technology Invention: 2005
To understand how inventions become innovations, we analyzed global patent data published through the end of 2004. In total, we identified nearly 50,000 patents within: 1) software; 2) network and telecom; 3) data center technology; and 4) the emerging markets of nanotechnology, micro technology, and RFID. We found that: 1) Patent counts declined throughout 2004; 2) software and telecom patents declined most sharply; and 3) IBM still filed more technology patents than anyone else.
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The total number of patents declined in each quarter of 2004. In Q1 2004, firms published 3,837 patents in all, while in Q4 2004, they published just 3,275.
Security was the lone bright spot amid retreating innovation in software. In the months following 9/11, the number of security-related patents doubled. Network and telecom innovation has cooled noticeably since 2002, with the number of published patents falling 12% from 2002 levels.
Between 2002 and 2004, IBM filed nearly 1,500 patents in the technology categories we tracked. At the end of 2004, IBM made an interesting shift in patent strategy, pledging more than 500 patents for royalty-free use by the open source development community.
Please Join Us At GigaWorld US And GigaWorld Europe
Forrester's GigaWorld IT Forum 2005 will be held in Dallas from May 2 to 5. The Computing Systems team and its colleagues will be hosting the "Future-Proofing Your Infrastructure: From The Data Center To The Client" track. Or, as we like to call it, "The Power Of Plumbing." Please join us for any of the sessions listed below. Also, for those of you in Europe, the session titles that are marked with an asterisk will also take place at the GigaWorld IT Forum Europe, in Prague, from June 6 to 8. We look forward to seeing you in either Dallas or Prague.
"The Art Of The Deal: Forrester Negotiation Tactics And Best Practices For Desktop And Server Technology Refresh" - Brad Day and Simon Yates
* "Emerging Server And CPU Architectures" - Richard Fichera
* "Best Practices: Securing The Client Computing Environment" - David Friedlander and Natalie Lambert
"IT Innovation Adoption Criteria" - Jean-Pierre Garbani
* "Decoding Computer Grid Technology -- And How To Put It To Good Use" - Frank E. Gillett
* "Building Tomorrow's More Secure Network" - Laura Koetzle, Paul Stamp, and Robert Whiteley
* "Data Center Strategies: Topology And Physical Infrastructure" - Colin Rankine
"Sizing The Emerging Market For PCs" - Simon Yates
Upcoming Research
The team will be publishing a great deal of new research over the next few weeks. Here's what we're most excited about:
- Evaluating Client Systems Management Vendors - David Friedlander
- How To Predict Which IT Innovations Will Succeed - Jean-Pierre Garbani
- ILM's Next Challenge: The Metadata Wars - Galen Schreck
- Sizing Asia-Pacific PC Adoption Through 2010 - Simon Yates
Upcoming Outside Event
Phil Russom will be presenting current data management industry trends at the Accelerating Organization Responsiveness events in New York on March 29 and Washington D.C. on March 31. IBM and RedHat will jointly host the events.
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