Healthcare First Look at sizing the consumer-directed health plan (CDHP) market.
Companies like Definity Health, HealthMarket, and Humana should all see their CDHP enrollment grow more than 200% in 2004. But the bulk of enrollment gains will occur later this decade as total CDHP enrollment breaks through the 20 million level by 2008. Forrester expects 40% of current PPO member to eventually choose a CDHP, but only 20% of HMO members to jump ship. Why? PPO enrollees are accustomed to trading cost for access, but most HMO members will prefer to fork over their copays and be done rather than deal with CDHPs' complexities. We also expect payers like Anthem and Aetna to integrate the core decision-support content and tools of CDHPs into all of their products, not just payers with healthcare reimbursement arrangements (HRAs).

Lagging plans have several options when entering the CDHP fray. Laggards in any market can overcome the challenges associated with late-market entry by co-opting early entrants' best ideas. Unfortunately, no clear get-to-market best practice has emerged. Anthem chose to partner with an administrative and platform partner NASCO, while Tufts and Guardian have inked turnkey deals with Destiny Health, and BCBS of South Carolina will deploy MyHealthBank's HRA infrastructure. Whatever their build or buy decision, plans are rushing CDHPs to market in 2003 to capture share in 2004.

Web site adoption is a hot topic these days. Clients across the healthcare landscape are asking us the same question: How do we get consumers to use our site? For plans, one tip is to let users into your back office -- virtually speaking, of course. Forrester believes that members will embrace self-service applications if health plans do a better job of relaying meaningful information about claims and other transaction status through IVR updates and intelligent escalation to rep-assisted service. For all healthcare organizations, auditing your service channels for data consistency and smooth handoffs will ensure that customers have positive service experiences.

Pharma and plans: Brace for the boomer vanguard. Health plans and pharmaceutical marketers will soon encounter a new breed of senior citizen. The oldest members of the authority-defying boomer vanguard (ages 48-57) reach the age of 57 this year, plunging them into the risk pool for chronic disease. These social pioneers will soon encounter many of the same health challenges as their parents, but this is not your grandmother's bridge and shuffleboard generation. Despite having lower disease rates than today's seniors, members of the boomer vanguard are as likely as their parents -- and 14% more likely than the cohort 10 years their junior -- to consider information in drug ads when deciding what topics to discuss with their doctors.

Docs do eDetails for the flexibility -- and the honoraria. We recently surveyed 2,237 doctors who have agreed to receive eDetail invitations from eDetailing vendors to learn about their views. Respondents report that the reasons they do eDetails include the scheduling flexibility (89%) and lack of disruption compared with rep visits (65%) -- although 59% view eDetails as complementary to information provided in sales calls. For 77%, the honorarium is a significant motivator.

We are very interested in your feedback on our research. Do you have topics to recommend, data you would like to see, technologies you want assessed? Drop me a line with your input at bradholmes@forrester.com.


Brad Holmes
Healthcare Research Director

Research Referenced In This Issue If you printed this email, get links to the research featured in this week's issue by going to www.forrester.com/go and entering the five-digit number of the report you'd like to read. Anthem's ByDesign Catches Up To The Competition (16797) Congress Set To Mandate ePrescribing By 2007 (17071) Consumer-Directed Health Plan Leaders Poised For Growth (16035) Health Plans: Let Members Into The Back Office (17066) Pharma And Plans: Brace For The Boomer Vanguard (17089) Pharma eDetails Work: Doctors Prescribe More (16798)

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