Executive Summary (This is a document excerpt)

Four years ago, European operators spent a collective €105 billion on UMTS licenses and started on a process that is only just coming to fruition: the commercial launch of UMTS networks and the start of the migration of customers from GSM to UMTS services. Operators believe that they will transfer more than 62% of their base in the next five years. The majority of them see this as a lucrative exercise that will result in 15% revenue growth. Forrester thinks they're wrong on both counts. Mobile users won't sign up to UMTS that fast, and revenues will — at best — remain flat. To cope with ARPU letdowns, we believe that operators should pay more attention to capex savings and customer profitability than ever before.

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