(Length: 13 pages)

December 21, 2004

European Residential Broadband Forecast: 2004 To 2010

This is the first document in the "European Broadband Market Update" series.

by Lars Godell

with Andrew Parker, Niek van Veen, Anette Rosengren

Executive Summary (This is a document excerpt)

Western European residential broadband adoption has continued to grow since our last European broadband forecast in June 2003. The previous model showed some slightly inflated numbers because it hasn't been possible to clearly eliminate business broadband lines from the 2002 and 2003 total market numbers until now: For example, business lines represented as much as 23% of all Belgian broadband lines in 2003. The "pure" residential market grew 81% in 2003; this impressive growth continued into 2004, clocking 28% growth during the first six months alone. And incumbent telcos' broadband dominance is gradually being eroded. Looking ahead to 2010, we expect broadband to hit 41% household penetration, which equals 67% of those online that year. Broadband penetration will top 45% in the Netherlands and Scandinavia thanks to large total online customer bases, competitive markets, and relatively low broadband prices. Penetration in Europe's Big Five economies will vary between 35% and 45%. And xDSL will dominate the broadband market, taking 80% of the 2010 market.

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