April 13, 2006

TechPotential: Predicting Technology Success

Consumer Demand, Usability, And Execution Separate Winners And Losers

by Josh Bernoff

with Chris Charron, Sally M. Cohen, Remy Fiorentino, Tenley McHarg, Kerry Bodine

Executive Summary (This is a document excerpt)

With this report, Forrester introduces a new service called TechPotential, a proprietary tool that forecasts sales of new consumer technology products and services. We use TechPotential to estimate unit sales over the first five years of a product's existence by factoring in: 1) a sophisticated estimate of potential consumer demand; 2) an assessment of design and usability factors that drive word of mouth; and 3) a realistic evaluation of execution factors like marketing and distribution. With this tool, companies can identify winning products, avoid costly failures, and size juicy markets. Result: Budget dollars will flow away from advertising and PR and into market research and design.

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