November 8, 2005

Preparedness Versus Probability In Determining Risk

Risk Analysis And Related Challenges With COSO Enterprise Risk Management

by Michael Rasmussen

with Laurie M. Orlov, Samuel Bright

Executive Summary (This is a document excerpt)

Organizations are building defined processes to measure and manage risk — risks that cross traditional silos of risk management such as credit and market risk to new areas in operational risk management. Old paradigms for risk analysis based on probability are not complete and do not work well for measuring operational risks. When conducting a risk analysis, organizations seeking to measure operational risk should give greater consideration to their preparedness to meet or mitigate a risk — before spending time on probability.

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