June 15, 2006

Making Broadband Triple Play Profitable: France

This is the third document in the "Making Broadband Triple Play Profitable" series.

by Lizet Menke , Lars Godell

with Ellen Daley, Andrew Parker, Andrea Carini

Executive Summary (This is a document excerpt)

French consumers are very interested in broadband triple play — and they enjoy the most advanced and competitive xDSL-based triple-play market in Western Europe. But that doesn't mean that incumbent telco France Télécom will make money on its triple-play offering. Forrester's new, detailed, bottom-up P&L model looks at the profit potential from 15 main revenue categories across 17 countries and shows that the vendor-recommended solution would be financial suicide for FT. We predict a cumulative per-subscriber loss of €4,311 in year 10, thanks to low revenue growth and massive backhaul costs. The key problem is that French consumers want triple play — but they don't want to pay a lot for TV services, thereby limiting revenue growth. What can FT expect if it continues down this path? High investment costs and lots of price and content competition for TV subscribers.

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