June 19, 2006

Making Broadband Triple Play Profitable: Germany

This is the fourth document in the "Making Broadband Triple Play Profitable" series.

by Lizet Menke , Lars Godell

with Ellen Daley, Andrew Parker, Andrea Carini

Executive Summary (This is a document excerpt)

German consumers are moderately interested in broadband triple play — and they are met with a dormant xDSL-based triple-play market that will soon see a lot more activity. But that doesn't mean that incumbent telco Deutsche Telekom (DT) will make money on its triple-play offering. Forrester's new, detailed, bottom-up P&L model looks at the profit potential from 15 main revenue categories across 17 countries and shows that the vendor-recommended solution of extensive fiber deployment would be financial suicide for DT. We predict a cumulative per-subscriber loss of €1,330 in year 10, thanks to low revenue growth and massive backhaul costs. The key problem is that German consumers might want triple play — but they don't want to pay a lot for TV services, thereby limiting revenue growth. What can DT expect if it continues down this path? High investment costs and lots of price and content competition for TV subscribers.

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