June 22, 2006

Making Broadband Triple Play Profitable: Spain

This is the fifth document in the "Making Broadband Triple Play Profitable" series.

by Lars Godell, Lizet Menke

with Ellen Daley, Andrew Parker, Andrea Carini

Executive Summary (This is a document excerpt)

Spanish consumers are moderately interested in broadband triple play — and they enjoy the second most advanced and competitive xDSL-based triple-play market in Western Europe. Even with high prices, it doesn't mean that incumbent telco Telefónica will make money on its triple-play offering. Forrester's new, detailed, bottom-up P&L model looks at the profit potential from 15 main revenue categories across 17 countries and shows that the vendor-recommended solution would be financial suicide for Telefónica. We predict a cumulative per-subscriber loss of €5,217 in year 10, thanks to low revenue growth and massive backhaul costs. The key problem is that Spanish consumers don't want to pay a lot for TV services, thereby limiting revenue growth. What can Telefónica expect if it continues down this path? High investment costs and lots of price and content competition for TV subscribers.

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