June 26, 2006

Making Broadband Triple Play Profitable: Italy

This is the sixth document in the "Making Broadband Triple Play Profitable" series.

by Lars Godell, Lizet Menke

with Ellen Daley, Andrew Parker, Andrea Carini

Executive Summary (This is a document excerpt)

Italian consumers are not very interested in broadband triple play — although many do show a willingness to pay high prices for TV. Even with these high prices, it doesn't mean that incumbent telco Telecom Italia will make money on its triple-play offering. Forrester's new, detailed, bottom-up P&L model looks at the profit potential from 15 main revenue categories across 17 countries and shows that the vendor-recommended solution that requires deep fiber investments would be financial suicide for Telecom Italia. We predict a cumulative per-subscriber loss of €7,035 in year 10, thanks to low revenue growth and massive backhaul costs. The key problem is that Italian consumers don't want to pay a lot for TV services in a country with very popular free DTT services, thereby limiting revenue growth. What can Telecom Italia expect if it continues down this path? High investment costs and lots of price and content competition for TV subscribers.

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