June 26, 2006

Making Broadband Triple Play Profitable: The Netherlands

This is the seventh document in the "Making Broadband Triple Play Profitable" series.

by Lars Godell, Lizet Menke

with Ellen Daley, Andrew Parker, Andrea Carini

Executive Summary (This is a document excerpt)

Dutch consumers are interested in broadband triple play — but they don't want to pay a lot for it. This means that incumbent telco KPN will struggle mightily to make money on its IPTV-based triple-play offering. Forrester's new, detailed, bottom-up P&L model looks at the profit potential from 15 main revenue categories across 17 countries and shows that the vendor-recommended solution that requires deep fiber investments would be financial suicide for KPN. We predict a cumulative per-subscriber loss of €2,103 in year 10, thanks to low revenue growth and massive backhaul costs. The key problem for IPTV-based triple play is that Dutch consumers don't want to pay a lot for TV services in a country with entrenched and inexpensive cable TV and increasingly popular cheap DTT services, thereby limiting revenue growth. What can KPN expect if it continues down this path? High investment costs and lots of price and content competition for TV subscribers.

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