November 3, 2006

A Forecast Of Windows Vista Consumer Adoption

Windows XP History Predicts 12 Million Vista-Owning Households In 2007

by Ted Schadler

with Sally M. Cohen, Alyssa L. Baer

Executive Summary (This is a document excerpt)

In the US consumer market, the best predictor of Windows Vista uptake is Windows XP's adoption history. Forrester's historical tracking of the installed base of computers — since 1998 — gives us a view into how Windows Vista will progress. Of course, creative marketing can accelerate the pace of adoption in the near term, but over the product's lifetime, consumers' entrenched behavior will determine Vista's growth, from 12 million households in 2007 to 73 million households by 2011.

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