(Length: 15 pages)

July 14, 2008

Prediction Markets: Wisdom Of The Crowd Comes To The Enterprise

by G. Oliver Young

with Peter Burris, Madiha Ashour

Executive Summary (This is a document excerpt)

The "wisdom of crowds" is capturing the attention of corporate strategists across the globe, and, as a result, many are now looking to prediction markets — speculative markets in which traders collectively predict future events — to generate collective intelligence. For enterprises, prediction markets bring unique value: They focus on the future, aggregate diverse information pools that can be applied to multiple decision-making domains, create streams of actionable data suitable for executive decision-making, and can often cut through corporate politics and pressures at lower cost than traditional forecasting methods. Market researchers will, however, need to have an active hand in the management of these mechanisms, ensuring strong management support, the right incentives for traders, and a focus on appropriate questions. When executed properly, the value to the enterprise is enormous; as a result, Forrester believes that prediction markets will ultimately find a permanent home in the market research toolbox.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

itemPrediction Markets Harness The Wisdom Of The Crowd To Predict The Future

itemPrediction Markets Bring A Market Function To The Gathering Of Information

itemMost Markets See Accuracy That Is At Least As Good As Traditional Forecasting Methods

itemPrediction Markets Have Substantive Benefits For The Enterprise . . .

item. . . But Still Need Active Supervision To Ensure Success

recommendations

itemAdd Prediction Markets To Your Standard Market Research Toolbox

WHAT IT MEANS

itemView Prediction Markets As Addition, Not Substitution

itemSupplemental Material

Forrester interviewed nine vendor and user companies, including Best Buy, Consensus Point, Corning, Hubdub, Inkling, Intrade, NewsFutures, Qualcomm, and Spigit.

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Find Documents In Related Categories

This document falls under the following categories. Click on a link below to find similar documents.
Analyst: G. Oliver Young
Technology: Marketing & Advertising
Industry: High-Tech, Market Research Tools & Best Practices
Geography: North America

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