For Business Process & Applications Professionals (Length: 10 pages)

April 10, 2009

Quantifying Technology Investment Risk

A Component Of The Forrester Total Economic Impact™ Methodology

by Chip Gliedman

with Jon Erickson, Sharyn Leaver, Varun Sedov


Executive Summary (This is a document excerpt)

The process of risk measurement has been confounding decision-makers within IT for some time, resulting in the use of weak qualitative analysis that only loosely ties to project outcomes. But using the basic financial community equivalency of "risk equals uncertainty" can help IT leaders translate the uncertainty that risk creates directly into the potential return on an investment. The power of these models lies in their ability not only to quickly yet accurately measure the impact of risk but also to communicate that impact to the rest of the organization. The result? Increased credibility and better risk management.

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

NOTES & RESOURCES

itemIT Investments Come With Risk — But How Much?

itemThe Role Of Risk In IT

itemUse A Simple Probability Distribution To Quantify Risks

itemAn Example: Quantifying The Impact of Risk On A Build Or Buy Decision

itemCalculating The Impact Of Risk

recommendations

itemQuantify And Communicate The Impact Of Risk On Estimates

itemSupplemental Material

We first applied quantitative risk analysis to communicate the impact of risk in IT investments in 1997. Since then, we have used this methodology in hundreds of situations with overwhelmingly positive acceptance.

Related Research Documents

itemValuing And Communicating IT Flexibility

February 2, 2009

itemThe Total Economic Impact™ Methodology: A Foundation For Sound Technology Investments

August 4, 2008

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Analyst: Chip Gliedman
Technology: Application Strategy & Selection, Governance, Risk, & Compliance, IT Spending & Budgeting, Packaged Applications, Security & Risk, Total Economic Impact™
Geography: Asia Pacific, Europe, North America

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Ratings and Comments
Rating: 5 out of 10
based on 3 ratings across all roles.
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