For Application Development & Program Management Professionals

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Executive Summary

Software investments — especially for core business applications and infrastructure — create dependencies on products and vendors that last for decades. To maximize the return on these investments, CIOs (and their key staff) must project 10 years ahead based on current trends to picture the software market at that time. Using a scenario-based planning approach, Forrester introduces three scenarios to predict what the dominant vendors, market dynamics, and prices may be in 2017 — and to reveal how today's trends are likely to reshape the choices available to enterprise IT buyers. One scenario forecasts increased consolidation, diminished innovation, and high prices. In the second, a new, large vendor enters to challenge IBM, Microsoft, Oracle, and SAP; stimulate innovation; and keep price increases at bay. The third scenario forecasts the upheaval of today's largest vendors, rapid innovation, and steep price declines. Our scenarios give CIOs a start on their own long-range plans.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

• Look Ahead 10 Years Because Software Investments Live At Least That Long
• Three Scenarios: Which Poker Hand Will Win?
• Three Kings: The Big Four Become The Big 2½; Their Dominance Grows
• Full House: Social Computing Shakes Up The Software Market
• Joker's Wild: Widespread Change Spurs A Major New Entrant

RECOMMENDATIONS

• Three Scenarios Bracket Range Of Possibilities — Make Plans For All Three
• Related Research Documents

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