For Mobile Services Professionals

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	July 23, 2004 Europe's UMTS Birthing Pains Preparing For Adoption And Revenue Setbacks by Michelle de Lussanet with Bernt Ostergaard, Niek van Veen

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Executive Summary

Four years ago, European operators spent a collective €105 billion on UMTS licenses and started on a process that is only just coming to fruition: the commercial launch of UMTS networks and the start of the migration of customers from GSM to UMTS services. Operators believe that they will transfer more than 62% of their base in the next five years. The majority of them see this as a lucrative exercise that will result in 15% revenue growth. Forrester thinks they're wrong on both counts. Mobile users won't sign up to UMTS that fast, and revenues will — at best — remain flat. To cope with ARPU letdowns, we believe that operators should pay more attention to capex savings and customer profitability than ever before.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

• Operators Across Europe Go Live With UMTS
• UMTS Realities Hold Back Mainstream Adoption Till 2009
• Revenue Deterioration Shifts The Focus To Profit

WHAT IT MEANS

• Mobile Operators' Reactive Decision-Making
• Supplemental Material
• Related Research Documents

This is an excerpt

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