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	May 8, 2008 Forrester's Tech Horizons Methodology: Predicting Which B2B Innovations Will Succeed How To Evaluate The Potential Of An Invention Or An Emerging Market — Before You Begin The Forecasting Process by Chris Andrews with Jean-Pierre Garbani, Janine Liu

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Executive Summary

Evaluating the potential of emerging markets is becoming an increasingly critical component of innovation. Companies are realizing that they can no longer generate all of their innovation internally and are instead looking to external sources — such as emerging markets — for sources of new growth and competitive advantage. But forecasting the potential of business technology markets is filled with pitfalls: Strategists often use S-curve forecasting methodologies to forecast demand, but the value of forecast models rests on assumptions that are often difficult to justify and that may lead to an inaccurate view of a market's potential. To help strategists identify and evaluate the factors that influence success in an emerging market, Forrester has created a three-part innovation assessment tool. Technology strategists can use the tool to evaluate three critical components of an emerging market — adoption factors, implementation factors, and market factors — and use the results to inform a more robust S-curve forecasting methodology.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

• Innovation Has Become An Imperative At Most Technology Companies
• The Innovation Potential Of A New Market Rests On Three Primary Factors
• An Analysis Of These Factors Will Influence Your Forecasting Process

RECOMMENDATIONS

• Use These Evaluation Criteria In Your Planning Process
• Related Research Documents

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