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For Consumer Product Strategy Professionals

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April 9, 2008

The Hard Road Ahead Of Blu-ray

by James L. McQuivey, Ph.D.

with Michelle de Lussanet, J.P. Gownder, Dan Wilkos

This is an excerpt

Executive Summary

In February, Toshiba officially threw in the towel and gave up its efforts to establish HD-DVD as the HD disc format of the future. To the victor — Blu-ray — go the spoils of this ugly format war. But just what those spoils are is still a big question. Winning the HD format war is like winning a minor league baseball championship: It might mean a lot to the team, but it's not where the money is. Instead, DVDs will continue to dominate the recorded media market, despite Blu-ray's technical superiority. Rising competition from digital downloads and video on demand (VOD) only turns up the heat. Blu-ray could do well in 2008, selling as many as 2 million non-PlayStation 3 (PS3) units, but only if prices come down, content lists bulk up, and makers focus on marketing the value that matters most to likely buyers: watching great movies.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

  • Hooray! The HD Format War Is Over
  • Attention Now Turns To The Powerful New Enemy — DVD
  • Desperately Seeking The Next Wave Of Likely Blu-ray Buyers In The US

RECOMMENDATIONS

  • Blu-ray Product Managers Should Target Likely Buyers In Three Ways

WHAT IT MEANS

  • Despite Blu-ray Makers' Best Efforts, The Five-Year View Keeps DVDs On Top
  • Related Research Documents

This is an excerpt

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