For Telecommunications Services Professionals

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Executive Summary

Broadband access is the killer app for broadband triple play in Western Europe — in our detailed, bottom-up access revenue model for incumbent telcos in 17 countries, we estimate that access-related revenues currently account for 93% of all residential broadband revenues. Western European broadband access ARPU figures show great diversity — compare €36.55 per month in Norway to €17.60 per month in Finland. Incumbents in Belgium, Greece, Ireland, Luxembourg, and Spain face the highest risk of access ARPU decline over the next 10 years. We expect incumbents to throw in more bandwidth and add more functionality to counter pricing pressures, thereby keeping prices relatively stable. And the ongoing industry consolidation will help reduce this pressure further. As a result, we only expect an average 1.9% annual access ARPU decline, which is below some expectations. The worst-hit incumbents will be firms like Telefónica, with an access ARPU CAGR of -3.5%.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

• Broadband Access Revenues Will Fall 1.9% Per Year Over The Next 10 Years

ALTERNATIVE VIEW

• More Pessimistic Assumptions Reduce Average Profits By Around €1,000
• Supplemental Material
• Related Research Documents

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