For Telecommunications Services Professionals

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Executive Summary

Many Western European incumbent telcos have launched consumer VoIP services, but most telcos don't have many subscribers yet. For 2005, we estimate that 2.6% of Western European broadband consumers used VoIP for almost all their fixed-line calls from home. This reflects the early days of both the VoIP market and incumbents' NGN migration plans. Forrester's detailed, bottom-up VoIP revenue model for 17 countries supports aggressive VoIP ambitions for incumbent telcos. The quick ramp-up has already started, and we expect three in four European xDSL/fiber broadband subscribers to use VoIP within 10 years. However, this masks a big gap between Ireland and Greece, where we only expect 45% penetration, and Austria, France, the Netherlands, Norway, and the UK, where we expect 100% VoIP penetration in year 10. The key driver for the highest penetration rates will be incumbents' migration of customers to an all-IP NGN. Incumbents' fixed-line telephony revenues are under pressure from both mobile and IP substitution, so we don't expect the average incumbent telco to get more than €63.58 in net annual VoIP revenues per broadband user in year 10.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

• Incumbent Telcos Are Ramping Up Their Consumer VoIP Offerings
• Three-Quarters Of All European DSL Broadband Users Will Use VoIP By 2015
• Net Telco VoIP Revenues Per Broadband User Will Reach €63.58 Per Year

RECOMMENDATIONS

• Incumbents Need To Make More Pricing Progress
• Supplemental Material
• Related Research Documents

This is an excerpt

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