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For Consumer Product Strategy Professionals

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April 13, 2006

TechPotential: Predicting Technology Success

Consumer Demand, Usability, And Execution Separate Winners And Losers

by Josh Bernoff

with Chris Charron, Sally M. Cohen, Remy Fiorentino, Tenley McHarg, Kerry Bodine

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Executive Summary

With this report, Forrester introduces a new service called TechPotential, a proprietary tool that forecasts sales of new consumer technology products and services. We use TechPotential to estimate unit sales over the first five years of a product's existence by factoring in: 1) a sophisticated estimate of potential consumer demand; 2) an assessment of design and usability factors that drive word of mouth; and 3) a realistic evaluation of execution factors like marketing and distribution. With this tool, companies can identify winning products, avoid costly failures, and size juicy markets. Result: Budget dollars will flow away from advertising and PR and into market research and design.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

  • What Makes New Technologies Fly — Or Fizzle?
  • Part 1: Consumer Demand Defines Potential
  • Part 2: Usability And Design Drive Adoption
  • Part 3: Execution Determines Actual Sales
  • Creating The TechPotential Growth Curve
  • Applying TechPotential To Real Products

RECOMMENDATIONS

  • Use TechPotential To Drive Investment Strategy

WHAT IT MEANS

  • The Word-Of-Mouth Imperative
  • TechPotential Supercharges Innovation
  • Supplemental Material
  • Related Research Documents

Features

Feature The TechPotential Assessment Summary: TiVo

Feature The TechPotential Assessment Summary: Netflix

Feature The TechPotential Assessment Summary: Slingbox

This is an excerpt

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