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	January 11, 2010 US And Global IT Market Outlook: Q4 2009 The Tech Downturn Is Over — Let The Growth Games Begin by Andrew Bartels with Ellen Daley, Christopher Mines, Chétina Muteba	Average: 10  (1 rating)

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Executive Summary

The tech downturn of 2008 to 2009 is unofficially over. While the Q3 2009 data for the US and the global market showed continued declines in tech purchases (as we expected), we predict that the Q4 2009 data will show a small increase in buying activity or, at worst, just a small decline. With growing evidence that an economic recovery started in the US and other countries in Q3 2009, the pieces are in place for a 2010 tech spending rebound. The US IT market will grow by 6.6% in 2010 (twice the 3.1% growth in nominal GDP), following a drop of 8.2% in 2009. The global IT market will rise in 2010 by 8.1% in US dollars, and by 5.6% in local currencies. Growth will start slowly in 2010 but pick up steam later in the year, with computer equipment (especially PCs and storage) and software leading the way, and IT consulting services following. Communications equipment purchases will be uneven, and IT outsourcing will see moderate growth. Asia Pacific, Canada, and the US will be standout regions in local currency terms, while the strong euro versus the dollar will make European IT market growth the star in US dollar terms.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

• Despite Declines In Q3 2009, A Tech Recovery Will Come In 2010
• Global IT Purchases In Dollars Will Grow By 8% In 2010
• Looking At The 2009 To 2010 Tech Market By Product Category

RECOMMENDATIONS

• The Tech Recovery Is Starting, But Expect Buyers To Be Cautious

ALTERNATIVE VIEW

• A Recession That Returns In 2010 Would Drive Down Tech Investment
• Supplemental Material
• Related Research Documents

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