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March 31, 2009 (updated April 8, 2009) US IT Market Outlook: Q1 2009Our Bleak Alternative View Moves Closer To Realitywith Ellen Daley, Chétina Muteba |
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This is an excerpt
Executive Summary
The US recession keeps getting worse than we and many economists had expected. Instead of the 2% to 3% drop in real GDP that the US experienced in the 1990s and 2001 to 2002 recessions, US real GDP fell by more than 6% in Q4 2008 and will fall by a similar amount in Q1 2009, with more (although lesser) declines until the end of 2009. The steep drop in economic growth in Q4 both caused and reflected a similar fall in tech purchases. As a result, we now expect US business and government purchases of IT goods and services to decrease by 3.1% in 2009, compared with the 1.6% increase we had previously projected for the year. Computer equipment purchases will continue to bear the brunt of cutbacks in tech investment, but purchases of network equipment, software licenses, and IT consulting services will also drop. As the US economy starts to recover in late 2009, IT purchases will revive strongly, with strong growth projected for 2010.
TABLE OF CONTENTS
- The US Recession Keeps Getting Worse, So The Tech Outlook Darkens Too
- Q4 2008 IT Purchases Data Shows Where The Pain Has Hit
- 2009 IT Purchases In Detail: Where The Pockets Of Growth Will Be
RECOMMENDATIONS
- Hunker Down For 2009, Start Getting Ready For The Tech Recovery In 2010
ALTERNATIVE VIEW
- A Recession That Lasts Into 2010 Would Drive Down Tech Investment
- Supplemental Material
- Related Research Documents
Features
As The US Economic Outlook Deteriorated, Our US IT Market Forecast Has Gotten Worse
Our Worst-Case Assumptions For The US Economy Move Closer To Reality
Forecast: US IT Purchases, 2009 To 2010
US Government Data Shows 6% Decline In Q4 2008, With More Drops Ahead For 2009
Vendors' US Revenues Fell By 7% In Q4 2008, With Declines Lessening In 2009
PC, Peripheral, And Server Vendors Get Clobbered
Telco Purchases Of Communications Equipment Will Drop In 2009
US Software Spending Growth Getting Weaker
Outsourcing Revenues Doing Worse Than Consulting And SI Revenues
2009 US IT Market Outlook In Detail
This is an excerpt
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