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	September 24, 2008 (updated November 24, 2008) US IT Market Outlook: Q3 2008 The US Recession And Tech Slowdown Will Hit In Late 2008 by Andrew Bartels with Ellen Daley, Madiha Ashour	Average: 10  (2 ratings)

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Executive Summary

The 2008 US recession and related slowdown in the US tech market has been delayed, not cancelled. With Q2 2008 data now available for both the US economy and the US tech market, growth in both areas was surprisingly strong. The US economy grew by 3.3%, while business investment in IT equipment and software rose by 11%. Below the surface, conditions were much weaker, with US real domestic purchases barely rising and US revenues of large vendors up by just 4%. The outlook for the second half of 2008 is even gloomier, starting with the Wall Street meltdown. The props under US economic growth in the first half of 2008 will fade in the second. The resulting recession will slow growth in the US market for technology goods and services in the fourth quarter, with continuing weakness in the first half of 2009. Computer equipment will bear the brunt of the slowdown in 2008, but network equipment and software purchases, while still growing, will see slower growth in 2009. And IT services purchases, which so far have defied the gravity of slow growth, will start to see little or no growth.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

• Forrester's 2008 US IT Market Outlook Now Shows Slow Growth In Second Half
• Mixed Messages In Q2 2008 IT Purchases Data
• The US Government Revises 2005 To 2007 IT Investment: Where Is This Coming From?
• Behind The Forecast: The Timing Of A US Recession Shifted By Six Months

RECOMMENDATIONS

• Vendors Should Not Be Lulled By A Good First Half; A Slowdown Is Still Coming

ALTERNATIVE VIEW

• The 2009 IT Market Stabilizes Because The US Avoids A Recession
• Supplemental Material
• Related Research Documents

This is an excerpt

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