Michael O'Grady

Principal Forecast Analyst Serving Customer Insights Professionals

Michael is a principal forecast analyst within the Marketing & Strategy analytics team. He focuses on eCommerce market sizing and five-year forecasting for Forrester’s syndicated ForecastView product. Some of his forecasts include online retail in Western and Eastern Europe, global luxury eCommerce, global cross-border eCommerce, global marketplaces, digital influence Europe, showrooming Europe, online insurance Europe, and online debt Europe.

Previous Work Experience

Prior to joining Forrester, Michael was a portfolio analyst working within the life sciences industry. He was responsible for understanding trends within the portfolio to help calculate product launch likelihoods and portfolio sustainability.

Education

Michael earned his undergraduate degree in mathematics from Leeds University. He also earned an M.Sc. in IT from University College London and an MBA from the Open University. He is an associate member of the Operational Research Society.

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Michael O'Grady

Principal Forecast Analyst Serving Customer Insights Professionals

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Michael O'Grady's Research

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For eBusiness & Channel Strategy Professionals

REPORT: Physical Stores In Europe Struggle For Survival As COVID-19 Migrates Sales Online

ForecastView Document

June 25, 2020Michael O'Grady

Forrester recently published a forecast on how COVID-19 affects the retail environment, in which we developed scenarios that estimate online retail growth in key European markets. Our April forecast showed that growth could vary between -9% and +5% in 2020. Based on actual online sales data, online retail sales in 2020 are growing significantly faster than 5% — even as the recession deepens. The impact on store sales will likely be long lasting, driven by the curbing of retail in-store experiences to limit the spread of COVID-19, new behaviors consumers have developed, and the time needed to develop a vaccine.
For eBusiness & Channel Strategy Professionals

REPORT: ForecastView: COVID-19 Retail Scenario Planner, April 2020 (Global)

ForecastView COVID-19 Global Retail Scenario Planner Models The COVID-19 Impact For North America, Asia, Europe, And Latin America

May 21, 2020Michael O'Grady, Satish Meena, Viraj D'Costa, Sanjeev Kumar

Forrester has updated its retail forecasts across North America, Asia, Europe, and Latin America to model out the possible impact of COVID-19. Our scenario model shows that retail will be hit hard. In 2020, global retail sales will contract by 9.6%, while eCommerce sales will remain flat. This ForecastView document models out the impact of three scenarios for 15 countries and shows how COVID-19 might affect essential and nonessential retail sales, offline and online, for the next five years. Please note: This model and report were created based on the information available on April 15, 2020, about the economic impact of the coronavirus for the regions covered. We will revisit this model when further adjustments are necessary.
For eBusiness & Channel Strategy Professionals

REPORT: Retail Will See A $2.1 Trillion Loss Globally In 2020

ForecastView COVID-19 Global Retail Scenario Planner Models The COVID-19 Impact For North America, Asia, Europe, And Latin America

April 30, 2020Michael O'Grady, Satish Meena, Viraj D'Costa, Sanjeev Kumar

Forrester has updated its retail forecasts across North America, Asia, Europe, and Latin America to model out the possible impact of COVID-19. Our scenario model, which will be published separately, shows that retail will be hit hard. In 2020, global retail sales will contract by 9.6% while eCommerce sales will remain flat. Please note: This model and report were created based on the information available on April 15, 2020, about the economic impact of the coronavirus for the regions covered. We will revisit this model in one month to see if further adjustments are necessary.
For eBusiness & Channel Strategy Professionals

REPORT: ForecastView: Parcel Forecast, 2018 To 2019 (Global)

ForecastView Document

April 1, 2020Michael O'Grady, Reineke Reitsma

eCommerce will drive parcel volume growth by 66% over the next five years. This report uses the ForecastView: Parcel Forecast, 2018 To 2019 (Global) to understand parcel volume size and growth across 49 countries in Latin America, North America, Europe, and Asia Pacific. The forecast calculates net domestic parcels, net imports, and net exports by country, as well as the countries they buy from and export to. Additionally, the report analyzes the challenges that logistics companies face, notably in maintaining margins as competition with marketplaces increases, driving a larger share of the parcel market. Please note: The impact to the global economy of COVID-19 is uncertain. We adjusted the forecast based on information available on March 4, 2020. The five-year parcel forecast is reduced to just 2018 and 2019; we will revisit this forecast in three months as more data becomes available on the COVID-19 global impacts.
For eBusiness & Channel Strategy Professionals

REPORT: Forrester Analytics: Online Retail Forecast, 2019 To 2024 (Western Europe), Q4 2019 Update

ForecastView Document

February 11, 2020Michael O'Grady, Sanjeev Kumar

Retail sales and online retail sales will grow at an average of 2.5% and 11.5% per year, respectively, over the next five years in Western Europe, with eCommerce driving more than half of retail growth. This report considers the factors that drive retail growth both online and offline. Our forecast details growth for 22 product categories across 17 countries in Western Europe, with historical online category sales going back to 2002.

For B2C Marketing Professionals

REPORT: The Worldwide Tablet Forecast

A ForecastView Report

June 13, 2013Michael O'Grady, Vikram Sehgal

Forrester recently launched its first global tablet forecast. This report provides color and insight into the numbers behind the forecast. We examine some of the key drivers from both a consumer and business perspective and examine the state of tablet adoption in 2017. The report also looks at how the demographics of a typical tablet user will change and discusses the impact that tablets are likely to have on other devices, such as laptops. This report will help clients understand the current and future trends of the worldwide tablet market and how these influence our forecast.
For eBusiness & Channel Strategy Professionals

REPORT: Seven FAQs On The State Of Global Cross-Border B2C Online Retail

October 19, 2016 Lily Varon, Michael O'Grady

This report answers the top questions that Forrester clients ask about the state of cross-border online retail. In an FAQ format, we address eBusiness professionals' questions about general sizing, regions, and categories. We also discuss the implications of using international shipping to reach global shoppers.
For eBusiness & Channel Strategy Professionals

REPORT: Retail Will See A $2.1 Trillion Loss Globally In 2020

ForecastView COVID-19 Global Retail Scenario Planner Models The COVID-19 Impact For North America, Asia, Europe, And Latin America

April 30, 2020Michael O'Grady, Satish Meena, Viraj D'Costa, Sanjeev Kumar

Forrester has updated its retail forecasts across North America, Asia, Europe, and Latin America to model out the possible impact of COVID-19. Our scenario model, which will be published separately, shows that retail will be hit hard. In 2020, global retail sales will contract by 9.6% while eCommerce sales will remain flat. Please note: This model and report were created based on the information available on April 15, 2020, about the economic impact of the coronavirus for the regions covered. We will revisit this model in one month to see if further adjustments are necessary.
For eBusiness & Channel Strategy Professionals

REPORT: Forrester Analytics: Online Retail Forecast, 2019 To 2024 (US)

ForecastView Document

October 10, 2019Michael O'Grady, Viraj D'Costa

By 2023 eCommerce will drive two-thirds of retail growth, up from 50% today. Amazon captured half of US eCommerce growth in 2018. Over the next five years, grocery will be the fastest-growing eCommerce category. This forecast details US retail growth and online growth across 30 product categories, with historical data going back to 1998.
For eBusiness & Channel Strategy Professionals

REPORT: Cross-Border Services Will Help Cross-Border eCommerce Reach $627 Billion By 2022

ForecastView Document

June 23, 2017Michael O'Grady

Cross-border shopping will make up 20% of eCommerce in 2022, with sales of $627 billion. Asia Pacific, driven by China, will become the largest eCommerce cross-border region for both imports and exports. Cross-border shoppers are becoming more sophisticated, and new markets like the Middle East, Africa, and Latin America are also adopting cross-border eCommerce. Cross-border sales are driving the development of cross-border services as marketplaces and logistics companies compete for online orders. This report accompanies the global cross-border eCommerce forecast for 2017 to 2022, providing context to the trends in global B2C cross-border eCommerce.