Most US consumers plan to maintain their holiday season spending in 2026, but elevated inflation, slower real income growth, and declining savings will make them more value-conscious. Higher-income households will continue to drive retail spending, reinforcing the bifurcation in consumer spending. E-commerce will account for nearly 60% of incremental holiday retail sales, supported by strong online spending momentum and growing use of digital channels for product discovery and deal-seeking. This report forecasts total, online, and offline US holiday retail sales for 2026, examines the economic and consumer trends shaping the season, and provides historical data going back to 2010.