Trends Report

Brief: HBO Won't Go As Direct As You Think

Why HBO Will Succeed, Others Will Follow, And TV Will Thrive

December 11th, 2014
James McQuivey, PhD, VP, Research Director
James McQuivey, PhD VP, Research Director
With contributors:
Jim Nail , Ryan Trafton

Summary

HBO stunned the market and raised the ire of its cable and satellite partners by announcing that it will offer some version of the HBO experience directly to consumers in 2015. When the details are revealed, we expect HBO's final offer to consumers will be less disruptive than it first sounds, but it paves a path that other programmers will follow to change how they price, package, and deliver content. Forrester believes this move will be successful for HBO, eventually emboldening other programmers to resell linear channels through broadband providers and digital-only distributors, even if none are able to create standalone subscription models. In this report, we explain why HBO's move will trigger the industry to respond in specific ways, opening the door to structural change in TV and giving CMOs a new perspective on TV as a growing opportunity to reach customers, rather than a shrinking one.

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