US CIOs and other tech decision makers will face a more challenging economic environment in 2019 and 2020 as the growth surge in 2018 from the 2017 tax act fades away. While recession remains a real but remote risk, weaker economic growth and profit squeezes will cause tech budget growth to slow to 4.0% by 2020. Meanwhile, rising cloud adoption will push software costs higher. This report lays out how CIOs should position their firms' tech spending plans in response.