Forecast Report

Western European Residential Broadband Forecast: 2008 To 2013

December 12th, 2007
With contributors:
Michelle de Lussanet , Lizet Menke

Summary

There is still huge potential for growth in Western European residential broadband adoption, despite a slowdown in the majority of national markets. Forrester sees 44% household penetration at the end of 2007 and forecasts a rise to 71% by the end of 2013. By then, any remaining dial-up services will be marginalized — 98% of online access will be via broadband. New access technologies, including WiMAX and fiber-to-the-home (FTTH), will become more prominent, growing from 2% of all broadband households in 2008 to 8% in 2013. However, contentious business cases that undermine the existing industry hype around them will limit their adoption unless governments intervene. Our forecast reveals that European ISPs will sign up 48 million Net connections between 2008 and 2013, but sobering churn figures will offset that opportunity. As the pace of adoption varies across countries, the level of churn in Western Europe will grow from 23% in 2008 to 26% by 2013, increasing retention costs for ISPs.

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