Rising geopolitical tensions are pushing countries and enterprises toward sovereign cloud, AI, and infrastructure solutions. China and the US dominate the global technology market and achieve the highest levels of tech sovereignty, while Europe lags behind. Nations can only achieve tech sovereignty when they have the agency to develop and deploy models that use infrastructure, data, and talent independently of foreign governments’ decisions and influences. Over the next five years, sovereignty will improve only gradually, forcing midsize nations to manage gaps through alliances, partnerships, open technologies, and selective investments, rather than achieving full self-sufficiency.