COVID-19 has dampened banks' profits worldwide as they set aside billions for loan loss provisions. How banks fare depends on the broader how and when of pandemic and economic recovery. To help banking executives plan ahead in these uncertain times, this framework details three business scenarios and charts their impact on customers, products, the competitive landscape, technology, and regulation. It also helps banking executives prioritize in six business areas: CX, digital, marketing, IT, process, and EX.