There’s a common impression — among leaders, in the media, and among employees — that AI is already causing widespread unemployment. But the evidence doesn’t support this contention today, and we believe that AI will have a real but only modest impact on jobs through 2030. Organizations that buy into the hype will be prone to over-automating jobs, requiring later pullbacks and harming employee experience. Leaders should instead master our five new rules for AI and jobs to build a human-centric AI strategy.