Figure 1 Europe-5 E-Commerce Penetration Will Reach 29% By 2030, Excluding Grocery E-commerce penetration refers to the percentage of total retail sales attributable to e-commerce. Forrester expects Europe-5 e-commerce penetration to increase from 17% in 2025 to 21% in 2030 (see Figure 2). Excluding grocery sales (which is the biggest retail category), Europe-5 e-commerce penetration will increase from 23% in 2025 to 29% in 2030.

US e-commerce sales will reach $1.8 trillion, and US e-commerce penetration will grow to 29% by 2030. This report provides a forecast for US total retail sales, e-commerce sales, and e-commerce penetration for 30 product categories, with historical data going back to 1998.

Source: Forrester’s US Holiday Retail E-Commerce Forecast, 2025. Figure 2 Over One-Quarter Of Holiday Retail Sales Will Occur Online In 2025 A column chart shows US online holiday retail sales’ share of the total holiday retail sales for the years 2018 to 2025. For 2018, it was 18%; for 2019, 19%; for 2020, 23%; for 2021, 23%; for 2022, 23%; for 2023, 24%; and for 2024, 25%. For 2025, Forrester forecasts that it will reach 26%. Source: Forrester’s US Holiday Retail E-Commerce Forecast, 2025.

Dynamic commerce is revolutionizing traditional e-commerce sales by using a continuous feed of data to deliver contextualized commerce moments to consumers. Large retailers like Amazon and Walmart are already integrating these strategies to meet consumer demands for relevant and localized content. Dynamic commerce increases conversions in each of three key moments for customers: discover, engage, and experience.

An increase in the online buyer population, marketplace-driven cross-border e-commerce growth, and the expansion of Chinese e-commerce platforms such as AliExpress, SHEIN, and Temu in Europe will contribute to e-commerce growth. The UK, Europe’s biggest online retail market, will reach £176 billion (€207 billion) by 2029, up from £130 billion (€152 billion) in 2024 (see Figure 2). Online retail sales in Germany will reach €146 billion by 2029, up from €97 billion in 2024.

The State Of B2C Commerce Solutions, 2026

The State Of B2B Commerce Solutions, 2026

Figure 7 Related Research The Commerce Services Landscape, Q3 2025 The Forrester Wave™: Commerce Services, Q1 2026 Dynamic Product Experiences Are The Lifeblood Of Your Commerce Strategy Dynamic Commerce Is Revolutionizing Traditional E-Commerce And Growing Sales The Future Of Commerce (US) The Future Of Commerce (Europe-5)

Customers cite positive experiences working with Publicis Groupe, especially in transforming businesses to e-commerce. They applaud its strong communication and commerce expertise in designing and launching seamless experiences across physical and digital endpoints. Publicis Groupe did not provide reference customers for this evaluation. Forrester’s take.

The majority of prospects for these commerce search vendors don’t already have a standalone solution in this market. They will be first-time adoptees as they transition away from the commerce search functionality embedded in their commerce solutions. That leaves a green field of prospects for commerce search adoption. However, most customer references at organizations that already have a commerce search solution don’t plan to switch vendors in the near future.