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For CIOs

Tech Budget Outlooks For France, Germany, And The UK In A COVID-19 Recession

A Best Case Of A 5% To 7% Drop In Tech Spending In 2020 And An Alternative With Declines Of 8% To 9% In 2020 And No Growth In 2021

July 22, 2020


Why Read This Report

Europe's major economies of France, Germany, and the UK had been struggling coming into 2020, though with some signs of improvement. The COVID-19 virus and public health policies to contain its spread have pushed all three economies into recession. Tech purchases will drop sharply in response. How big and long-lasting these downturns will be will depend on which of two scenarios plays out. Scenario A, a relatively short two-quarter recession lasting through Q3 with a recovery starting in Q4 2020, would cause tech purchases in France, Germany, and the UK to fall by 5% to 7% in 2020, with a 4% to 6% recovery in 2021. Scenario B, with recessions that last into 2021, would lead to tech downturn of 8% to 9% in 2020, with almost no growth in 2021. CIOs and their business partners can use these scenarios to plan their tech budget responses to these adverse conditions.

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Table of Contents

  • The Big Three European Tech Markets Will Fall In 2020 And Maybe 2021
  • Our Projections Are Positive For France And Germany, But Not The UK
  • France's Tech Spending Will Drop By 6.6% In 2020 And Rebound In 2021
  • Germany's Tech Budgets Will Drop Moderately In 2020
  • The UK's Tech Spending Is Most Likely To Drop In Both 2020 And 2021
  • Recommendations

  • Start Cutting Tech Budgets, Especially In The UK
  • Supplemental Material
  • Related Research Documents

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