Tech Budget Outlooks For France, Germany, And The UK In A COVID-19 Recession

Europe's major economies of France, Germany, and the UK had been struggling coming into 2020, though with some signs of improvement. The COVID-19 virus and public health policies to contain its spread have pushed all three economies into recession. Tech purchases will drop sharply in response. How big and long-lasting these downturns will be will depend on which of two scenarios plays out. Scenario A, a relatively short two-quarter recession lasting through Q3 with a recovery starting in Q4 2020, would cause tech purchases in France, Germany, and the UK to fall by 5% to 7% in 2020, with a 4% to 6% recovery in 2021. Scenario B, with recessions that last into 2021, would lead to tech downturn of 8% to 9% in 2020, with almost no growth in 2021. CIOs and their business partners can use these scenarios to plan their tech budget responses to these adverse conditions.