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US And Global IT Market Outlook: Q3 2009

The Tech Recovery In Q4 2009 Is Still On Track, Despite A Worse Growth Rate For 2009

September 29, 2009

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Forrester stays steady with our earlier projections — the US tech market will start to recover from the downturn in Q4 2009, with the global tech market improving in 2010. As we expected, Q2 2009 was another down quarter in the US and in other markets. Upward revisions to US IT investment data in 2007 and 2008 by the US Department of Commerce raised the base periods for measuring 2009 growth, making the 2009 declines even greater than before (-9.3% in this forecast, compared with a 5.1% decline in our June forecast). Those revisions confirmed our position that a tech boom was starting to take shape in 2008, before being rudely interrupted by the September financial crisis. The lingering effects of that financial crisis continued to hurt IT capital investments in Q2 2009, especially in computer equipment, network equipment, and licensed software, as companies stopped investing and hoarded cash. However, the weak results in early 2009 also mean that the market will hit bottom sooner, setting a low base for year-over-year growth starting in Q4 2009 and into 2010. Vendors need to look beyond the downturn and get prepared for a strong tech recovery in late 2009 and 2010.

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Table of Contents

  • As Expected, Q2 2009 Was Another Down Quarter For The US Tech Sector
  • Behind The Forecast: 2008 Tech Investment Revised Up; 2009 Economy Improves
  • Global IT Purchases In Dollars Will Still Decline By 11% In 2009
  • Digging Into The Q2 2009 Numbers And The Rest-Of-The-Year Outlook
  • RECOMMENDATIONS

  • Stop the Cost Cutting, And Get Ready For The Tech Recovery In 2010
  • ALTERNATIVE VIEW

  • A Recession That Returns In 2010 Would Drive Down Tech Investment
  • Supplemental Material
  • Related Research Documents

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