Forecast Report

US Internet Access Forecast, 2009 To 2014

Broadband Reaches Maturity, While Dial-Up Goes Gentle Into That Good Night

November 9th, 2009
With contributors:
J. P. Gownder , Tushi Banerjee , Laura Wiramihardja

Summary

Nearly 16 million new US broadband subscribers will emerge over the next five years, but more than half of those will come in the next two years. Due to slowing organic growth, the Internet access market will be characterized by shifts across platforms. Over the next five years, xDSL subscriptions will fall as subscriptions to fiber-to-the-home (FTTH) broadband rise from 4% to 10% of US online households. Cable modem subscribership will remain steady, with only very modest overall broadband market share loss compared with telco broadband (fiber and xDSL combined). Consumers will continue to migrate away from dial-up, for which steady losses will continue over the next two years. Shifts will also occur relative to the speed tiers to which consumers subscribe, with both supply and demand factors encouraging more consumers to buy higher-speed service. Broadband consumer product strategists must implement product enhancements that encourage current customers to upgrade and potential new customers to leave their existing provider.

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