Data Overview Report

Tech Budget Outlooks For France, Germany, And The UK In A COVID-19 Recession

A Best Case Of A 5% To 7% Drop In Tech Spending In 2020 And An Alternative With Declines Of 8% To 9% In 2020 And No Growth In 2021

July 22nd, 2020
Dan Bieler, Principal Analyst
Dan Bieler Principal Analyst
Andrew Bartels, null
Andrew Bartels
Jennifer Belissent, PhD, null
Jennifer Belissent, PhD
Duncan Jones, null
Duncan Jones
With contributors:
Pascal Matzke , Audrey Hecht

Summary

Europe's major economies of France, Germany, and the UK had been struggling coming into 2020, though with some signs of improvement. The COVID-19 virus and public health policies to contain its spread have pushed all three economies into recession. Tech purchases will drop sharply in response. How big and long-lasting these downturns will be will depend on which of two scenarios plays out. Scenario A, a relatively short two-quarter recession lasting through Q3 with a recovery starting in Q4 2020, would cause tech purchases in France, Germany, and the UK to fall by 5% to 7% in 2020, with a 4% to 6% recovery in 2021. Scenario B, with recessions that last into 2021, would lead to tech downturn of 8% to 9% in 2020, with almost no growth in 2021. CIOs and their business partners can use these scenarios to plan their tech budget responses to these adverse conditions.

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