US Online Retail Forecast, 2008 To 2013

February 2nd, 2009

Patti Freeman Evans

With contributors:

Vikram Sehgal , Cristina Bugnaru , Brendan McGowan

Summary

US online retail sales will reach $229 billion in 2013. The market will grow at a CAGR of 10% over the five-year forecast period. The current economic crisis is dampening the immediate growth of online sales, due to lack of credit access, low consumer confidence, decreased spending, and price-conscious behavior. Some product categories, such as video games, pet supplies, and auto parts, will weather the economic conditions better than others, like PCs and home improvement products. In the long term, the demographics of online buyers will sustain the pace of growth of online sales, as these buyers are less susceptible to financial difficulties; the foundational strengths of eCommerce, such as accessibility, will also support growth. The online market will enter a natural early phase of maturing in the latter three years of the forecast. Nonetheless, eCommerce will continue to have a very strong influence on both online and offline retail sales, with the total Web impact on retail sales growing at a CAGR of 10%.

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