Trends Report

How Digital Licensing Will Help Save The Music Industry

European Music Forecasts, 2008 To 2014

January 20th, 2009
With contributors:
James McQuivey, PhD , David Card , Tushi Banerjee

Summary

"Digital music 1.0" is stuck in a niche, while CD sales continue to plummet. In 2009 and 2010, these trends will continue, and new emerging business models will not generate revenues meaningful enough to prevent further revenue decline. Solid growth in the premium digital music market coupled with a continued decline in CD sales will result in a modest recovery in total music sales by 2011. By 2014, the digital channel will have a 57% share of the market and revenues of €4 billion. But premium revenues only represent part of the opportunity. The music industry is moving away from the distribution paradigm to the consumption era. Licensing from sources such as social music and subsidized subscriptions, which predominately provide consumers with music for free, will generate a further €1.2 billion in digital revenues for rights owners by 2014.

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