Summary
Different spending scenarios of the new administration will impact US economic growth. Looser fiscal policy could boost US growth, but tariff increases could increase the costs of cross-border trade and raise inflation. We expect more spending globally on chips and defense and less spending on the US green economy. The US occupations that are most at risk are in the green economy (installation, maintenance, and repair); computer and mathematical; farming, fishing, and forestry; and life, physical, and social sciences. Europe will prepare for more tariffs on US imports, with 69% of European exports to the US coming from machinery, transport equipment, chemicals, and chemical-related products.
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