Forecast Report

US And Global IT Market Outlook: Q4 2009

The Tech Downturn Is Over — Let The Growth Games Begin

January 11th, 2010
With contributors:
Christopher Mines , Chétina Muteba , Ellen Daley


The tech downturn of 2008 to 2009 is unofficially over. While the Q3 2009 data for the US and the global market showed continued declines in tech purchases (as we expected), we predict that the Q4 2009 data will show a small increase in buying activity or, at worst, just a small decline. With growing evidence that an economic recovery started in the US and other countries in Q3 2009, the pieces are in place for a 2010 tech spending rebound. The US IT market will grow by 6.6% in 2010 (twice the 3.1% growth in nominal GDP), following a drop of 8.2% in 2009. The global IT market will rise in 2010 by 8.1% in US dollars, and by 5.6% in local currencies. Growth will start slowly in 2010 but pick up steam later in the year, with computer equipment (especially PCs and storage) and software leading the way, and IT consulting services following. Communications equipment purchases will be uneven, and IT outsourcing will see moderate growth. Asia Pacific, Canada, and the US will be standout regions in local currency terms, while the strong euro versus the dollar will make European IT market growth the star in US dollar terms.

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