The personal computing experience for individuals is broken, ruptured by the fragmentation of personal information across PCs and mobile devices and the scattering of content across a multitude of online services. The personal computing experience is being rebuilt around personal cloud services rather than personal devices. Individuals will build their own personal cloud experience around three core elements: a core service of web-based email with extra application capabilities such as calendars and contacts, several component service offerings that complement the core, and the multitude of personal devices and OSes that enable connection to the personal cloud. The numbers are startling: 28% of US online adults are using personal cloud services already, along with 41% of US information workers. The market is expected to grow from $500 million to $6 billion in direct revenue by 2016, primarily driven by the adoption of multiple devices. I identify several other revenue models, from advertising to improved retention for related services to business IT purchases, putting the total market impact at $12 billion by 2016. The three main players in this space are Apple, Google, and Microsoft, with Apple leading the pack. The personal cloud becomes the third client software platform, following mobile devices and PC OSes.
Agenda:
- Market landscape: challenges, framework, forecast: US individuals with two or more PCs or smartphones, 2008 to 2016
- Market sizing/opportunity: $6 billion in direct revenue and a total of $12 billion by 2016
- Major players: Apple, Google, and Microsoft
- Opportunities for vendors: commercial ISVs, IT systems management, carriers, ISPs, telcos
Vendors mentioned: Apple, Backupify, BitLev, Box.net, Citrix Systems, CloudMagic, Dropbox, Evernote, HP, Gist, Google, Livescribe, Microsoft, MiMedia, Mozy, Primadesk, SugarSync, VMware, and Yahoo
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