[Posted by David Card]

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In the face of overall economic turmoil, advertising spending
appears to be holding up a little better online than in other
media. Jupiter forecasts that US spending on online display
advertising will end up growing 12 percent in 2008 to reach $8.3 billion, then
slow to an eight percent rate in 2009, when it will reach $8.9
billion. Financial services spending on display ads will decline for the
next two years, while auto and lead generation will remain essentially
flat. (See US Online Category Advertising Forecast, 2008 to 2013.)

Paid search spending should finish 2008 with 26 percent growth, to $11.4 billion, then slow to 20 percent growth next year. Adding in Classifieds, Display, and Search, US online spending in total will finish 2008 up 18 percent, at $23.6 billion, then slow to 15 percent growth in 2009, and 11 percent in 2010. After that, depending on how the recession plays out, we should see a slight acceleration again, driven by display.

How does that compare to offline spending? We’re projecting total offline — including direct mail — to be essentially flat in 2008, and down 7 percent in 2009. Broadcast TV should be down 8 percent next year, with cable not much better. Radio’ll be down 10 percent, as will magazines, and newspapers down 15 percent.

Perspective? Offline was down 6 percent in 2001, but that was after an up year, rather than a flat one like 2008. Online grew 3% in 2001, and was flat in 2002. But search was just emerging then, and display was down double digits both years as dotcoms imploded.

So it looks a little ugly, but it’s all relative. Hey, we’re still expecting growth. Relevant research for thriving during the downturn:

Ad Sales Strategy for online media

Can Marketing Deliver Growth in the Downturn?

Recession Marketing strategies