2015 will equal another year of growth for US eCommerce and, along with it, the continued rumor mill around its evolution. In fact, perhaps what’s most interesting about eCommerce in 2015 is what won’t happen. Forrester analyst Sucharita Mulpuru predicts that:

Alibaba won’t transform the US eCommerce landscape. We shouldn’t expect Alibaba to overshadow Amazon anytime soon — even though this will be a rivalry to watch next year as the two retail giants push the borders globally. According to Forrester’s global eCommerce 2015 predictions, both will make international markets a major priority. Back in the US, we may be in for an Alibaba and eBay marriage — since eBay has the biggest ability to make a sizable move — but this would most likely come in early 2016.

Apple Pay won’t displace credit cards. Expect the benefit to Apple to be much greater than the benefit to merchants — stalling adoption.

Online grocery won’t explode this year. The challenges of cost-effectively delivering fresh and frozen foods will persist through 2015.

What can we expect for next year’s US eCommerce market?

Tech Titans will extend their sizable leads. Google, Facebook, and Amazon will continue to dominate merchant mindshare — with PLAs, display ads, and Prime, respectively.

Social commerce will make a comeback. Keep an eye on Facebook’s buy button, as well as initiatives from companies like Wanelo and Houzz, which promise to bring renewed energy around the value of social commerce for merchants.

Problems will persist with carrier networks and delayed delivery. Existing express shipping solutions will falter again during the critical holiday shopping season. Retailers must ready their contingency plans and be prepared for increased shipping costs in 2015.

To learn more about this research, visit the eBusiness & Channel Strategy blog.